A new report says the best way to keep crime down is by increasing the certainty of arrest and incarceration, rather than the severity of the punishment.
The report evaluated how much the chance of arrest, imprisonment, the length of imprisonment had on property and violent crime rates in New South Wales, Australia.
A one percent increase in the arrest rate for property crimes produced a 10 percent decrease in those types of crimes. The same increase in arrests for violent crime produced a 19 percent decrease in violent crime.
If the one percent increase in arrest rates is sustained, the study concluded, the long-term effect is estimated to be a 14 percent decrease in property crime and 30 percent decrease in violent crime.
There was no evidence that increases in the length of imprisonment have any short- or long-term impact on crime rates.
The study was conducted by the New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research.
