Nearly six percent decrease in population and two percent increase in budget

By C. K. Gerhartsreiter, Staff Writer

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s budget for 2026-27, published in the January 9 “Governor’s Budget Summary,” showed no surprises for the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation. For the most part, the budget budged upward while estimates for the number of incarcerated persons nudged downward. 

The allocation of $14.2 billion, a slight 2.1% increase from the $13.9 billion in the budget from 2025-26, came from the same sources: $13.8 billion from the General Fund and $400 million from other funds. About $4.1 billion of the allocated funds would go to health care, the same number as last year.

“While the budget is balanced in the 2026-27 fiscal year,” the Governor’s Budget Summary said, “with a discretionary reserve of $4.5 billion, it projects a deficit of roughly $22 billion in the 2027-28 fiscal year and shortfalls in the two years following.”

The document said population projections for the CDCR would continue to decline. Autumn “projections estimate the average daily adult incarcerated population for 2025-26 to be 89,162” (down from spring 2025 projections of 91,672). The same paragraph continued to say it projected a “population of 87,613 in 2026-27, a decrease of 5.5 percent from the spring [2025] projections.” 

The Governor’s Budget Summary noted, “In the longer term, the population is projected to decline to 84,664 incarcerated individuals by June 30, 2030.” The Governor’s Budget Summary also numbered “adult incarcerated individuals age 55 and older as more than 19,000” and its next sentence stated, “Older incarcerated individuals tend to have complex needs that drive higher costs.” The dollar allocation for healthcare remained unchanged at $4.1 billion.

The text also mentioned Proposition 36, passed in Nov. 2024. Original projections of a population increase of 1,878 (in 2025-26) and 3,597 — upon broader implementation — have failed to materialize: “Fall projections now indicate Proposition 36 impacts will be 562 in 2025-26 and approximately 1,200 upon full implementation.”

For parolees, the state expected the active parolee average daily population to number 33,816 in 2025-26, declining to 32,432 in 2026-27. A further expected decline would reduce the parole population to 30,785 by June 30, 2030.

Put in perspective, CDCR expenditures for 2026-27 would measure at about 5.2% of the total of expenditures of $349 billion. K-12 education equaled about five times as much and only state expenditures on transportation appeared in a similar range.

“This January budget is not the final word,” said Gov. Newsom in his address to the California Legislature. “It is a beginning — a statement of purpose. In the months ahead, we will work together to refine a final budget that looks beyond a single year, mindful of the obligations to the people we serve.”