By C.K. Gerhartsreiter
In 2025, an important event happened Sept. 3 — the Wednesday after Labor Day — at a Board of Parole Hearings at some prison somewhere in the state. Commissioners decided to deny parole to an incarcerated person for three years. The hearing participants may not have realized the significance of the denial, but the extra years had put the state over the one billion dollar mark in cost of parole denials for 2025.
The analysis that quantified the dollar cost the BPH exacted on public finances worked like this: Parole denials would require a person with a life sentence to remain incarcerated for a set number of years until that person could again seek release. This additional time would cost an average of $151,628 per person per year — or $454,884 for three years. Cumulatively, all denials for 2025 amounted to $999,986,660, until that 3-year-denial from Sept. 3, which shoved the cost beyond the billion-dollar-threshold to the 10-digit number of $1,000,441,544.
To calculate the annual cost of incarceration per person, the analysis used data from the “Governor’s Budget Summary 2025-26,” which revealed a CDCR budget of $13.9 billion and a CDCR population of 91,672. Dividing the budget number by the population number computed the annual cost of incarceration per person at $151,628.
Although the BPH often advanced hearing dates, the BPH (or the parole applicant) also postponed hearing dates. The data’s 363 postponements have totaled 55 years to Nov. 30, 2025, but this analysis did not take that time into consideration.
The analysis attempted to clarify that parole denials represented a hidden cost to taxpayers and so focused on cost only. The analysis did not consider social implications of higher grant rates; it did not consider whether some denials should or should not have occurred. The analysis did not consider time value of dollars and it represented all valuations in 2025 dollars.
For this article, interviews conducted with 12 incarcerated persons — all with life sentences and all with at least one denial — found that none of them felt sufficiently comfortable to speak on record. Ten of the 12 said they feared retaliation by the BPH.
The analysis used “Parole Suitability Hearing Results” data available on the BPH website. The data covered hearings held between January 2 and Nov. 30, 2025. The 2,503 denials during that period calculated to 8,838 years of extra time spent behind bars.
Parole grants have fallen drastically in 2025. The analysis calculated grant rates by taking grants and dividing them by the number of grants plus the number of denials. Statewide, by Nov. 30, 2025, grants have numbered 782 and denials have numbered 2,503, producing a grant rate of 23.6%.
A historical survey of parole grants with data from the BPH’s “Report of Significant Events” showed 9,736 grants and 19,696 denials occurred between 2017 and 2024, making the average grant rate about 33%. Only twice, in 2017 and in 2022, have grant rates fallen below 30%. In 2018, grant rates reached a high of 38.8%.
One could make the point that higher grant rates could negatively affect public safety, but long-term data have clearly indicated that recidivism for persons released after a life sentence has historically remained a very small number.
The most recent data in the April 2025 “Report of Significant Events” showed that between 2011 and 2020, the BPH has released 6,220 persons. Only 166 — or 2.67% — have reoffended (according to the state’s definition of recidivating “with any new felony or misdemeanor conviction within 3 years” of the fiscal year of release.) Despite the 97% success rate, the BPH’s decisions indicated a very high degree of caution.