The meaning of statistics can vary greatly according to their definition. A multiplicity of meanings applies to the metrics of recidivism, too, and such interpretations have vast implications on the lives of incarcerated persons, for they reflect on the success or failure not only of their rehabilitation but also on the justice system as a whole.
An article by Amanda Hernández in the New Jersey Monitor elaborates on the variety of data gathered and says suppliers of these data do not use uniform metrics. Recidivism statistics have two common elements: numbers of persons released from incarceration and newly committed infractions by these persons that lead to return to incarceration. Some statistics go one step farther and measure the time elapsed between release and new infraction.
“It is one of the metrics that state correctional leadership and state community supervision leadership pay close attention to,” said Evan Green-Lowe of Recidiviz, a tech nonprofit that works with state criminal justice agencies, according to the article.
The article says the statistics evaluate corrections system performance and show the effectiveness of rehabilitative programs, reentry programs, and post-sentence probation programs.
Low rates of recidivism may indicate that rehabilitation efforts by prison staff and probation or parole officers do actually work, the article said.
Some advocates call the statistics ambiguous and less-than-accurate, says the article. Ann Fisher, the executive director of the nonprofit organization Virginia CARES, which supports formerly incarcerated persons, says, “Recidivism by itself is not a true measure of the success of reentry programming or of incarceration rates. It’s just not a true picture.”
Recidivism data typically quantify returning citizens released from state prisons or facilities who return to incarceration within three years, but an absence of national standards makes comparisons a challenge, according to the article.
Recidivism studies use a variety of definitions for the act of reoffending. Some include parole violations, arrests, criminal convictions, or re-incarceration, the article said. “Some studies consider all these outcomes as recidivism, while others count only one or two,” said the article.
States inconsistently measure time intervals in recidivism studies. “Most include new offenses within three to five years; others examine a much shorter time frame, such as six months to a year,” according to the article.
The degree of the offense varies, too. Certain states use only commission of new felonies in their calculations of recidivism and they exclude misdemeanors and offenses resulting in local jail time. The way states categorize crimes as felonies or misdemeanors adds yet more complexity, the article says. Some states include in recidivism data even non-criminal offenses, such as missing a meeting with a parole officer.
Statistics also do not count formerly incarcerated persons whose newly committed criminal acts remain undetected.
Charis Kubrin, a criminology professor at the University of California, Irvine, cautions, “You have to be very, very careful. You have to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges.”
Iowa, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia have pointed to reentry or other rehabilitative programs for their success in lowering rates of recidivism, the article said.
Iowa reported 2023 recidivism at 34.3%, down 2.7 percentage points from 2022. The state defines recidivism by counting persons released from an Iowa prison who returned to incarceration within three years for any reason.
Kentucky announced its lowest recidivism rate in history at 27.15% and defines recidivism as a return to state custody within two years of release, either due to committing a new felony or a technical violation of supervision.
South Carolina said in 2023, the state achieved a recidivism rate of 17%, one of the lowest in the country; South Carolina defines recidivism as formerly incarcerated persons re-incarcerated within three years of release.
Recidivism in Tennessee declined to 29.6% in 2023 for incarcerated persons released four years earlier in 2019, the lowest rate in more than a decade. The state defines recidivism as re-arrest, re-conviction or return to prison within three years after release.
Virginia’s 2023 recidivism rate dropped to 20.6%, but that rate measures persons released from incarceration in 2018 and re-incarcerated within three years.
The quotes Elsa Chen, of Santa Clara University as saying, “State officials should specify how the rate was calculated, what type of offenses or acts count as recidivism, potential limitations, such as incomplete data, and the frequency of reoffenses.”
It cites a 2022 report that recommends the development of new metrics of post-release success that include “factors such as personal well-being, education, employment, housing, family and social supports, health, civic and community engagement and legal involvement.”
Chen called such metrics “much more nuanced.
